Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.     

Nitrification,denitrification, and related functional genes under elevated CO2: A meta-analysis in terrestrial ecosystems

Global change may have profound effects on soil nitrogen (N) cycling that can induce positive feedback to climate change through increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions mediated by nitrification and denitrification. We conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of elevated CO₂ on nitrification and denitrification based on 879 observations from 58 publications and 46 independent elevated CO₂ experiments in terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated the effects of elevated CO₂ alone or combined with elevated temperature, increased precipitation, drought, and N addition. We assessed the response to elevated CO₂ of gross and potential nitrification, potential denitrification, and abundances of related functional genes (archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nirK, nirS, and nosZ). Elevated CO₂ increased potential nitrification (+28%) and the abundance of bacterial amoA functional gene (+62%) in cropland ecosystems. Elevated CO₂ increased potential denitrification when combined with N addition and higher precipitation (+116%). Elevated CO₂ also increased the abundance of nirK (+25%) and nirS (+27%) functional genes in terrestrial ecosystems and of nosZ (+32%) functional gene in cropland ecosystems. The increase in the abundance of nosZ under elevated CO₂ was larger at elevated temperature and high N (+62%). Four out of 14 two-way interactions tested between elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature, elevated CO₂ and increased precipitation, and elevated CO₂ and N addition were marginally significant and mostly synergistic. The effects of elevated CO₂ on potential nitrification and abundances of bacterial amoA and nirS functional genes increased with mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Our meta-analysis thus suggests that warming and increased precipitation in large areas of the world could reinforce positive responses of nitrification and denitrification to elevated CO₂ and urges the need for more investigations in the tropical zone and on interactive effects among multiple global change factors, as we may largely underestimate the effects of global change on soil N₂O emissions.     

Summer drought exposure,stand structure,and soil properties jointly control the growth of European beech along a steep precipitation gradient in northern Germany

Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500–850 mm year⁻¹) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April–September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites. A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.     

Carryover effects from environmental change in early life: An overlooked driver of the amphibian extinction crisis?

Ecological carryover effects, or delayed effects of the environment on an organism's phenotype, are central predictors of individual fitness and a key issue in conservation biology. Climate change imposes increasingly variable environmental conditions that may be challenging to early life-history stages in animals with complex life histories, leading to detrimental physiological and fitness effects in later life. Yet, the latent nature of carryover effects, combined with the long temporal scales over which they can manifest, means that this phenomenon remains understudied and is often overlooked in short-term studies limited to single life-history stages. Herein, we review evidence for the physiological carryover effects induced by elevated ultraviolet radiation (UVR; 280–400 nm) as a potential contributor to recent amphibian population declines. UVR exposure causes a suite of molecular, cellular and physiological consequences known to underpin carryover effects in other taxa, but there is a lack of research linking embryonic and larval UVR exposures to fitness consequences post-metamorphosis in amphibians. We propose that the key impacts of UVR on disease-related amphibian declines are facilitated through carryover effects that bridge embryonic and larval UVR exposure with potential increased disease susceptibility post-metamorphosis. We conclude by identifying a practical direction for the study of ecological carryover effects in amphibians that could guide future ecological research in the broader field of conservation physiology. Only by addressing carryover effects can many of the mechanistic links between environmental change and population declines be elucidated.     

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production (“masting breakdown”) which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship—correlation between tree size and viable seed production—has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.     

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.     

Global mangrove root production,its controls and roles in the blue carbon budget of mangroves

Mangroves are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems worldwide. Most of the carbon in mangroves is found belowground, and root production might be an important control of carbon accumulation, but has been rarely quantified and understood at the global scale. Here, we determined the global mangrove root production rate and its controls using a systematic review and a recently formalised, spatially explicit mangrove typology framework based on geomorphological settings. We found that global mangrove root production averaged ~770 ± 202 g of dry biomass m⁻² year⁻¹ globally, which is much higher than previously reported and close to the root production of the most productive tropical forests. Geomorphological settings exerted marked control over root production together with air temperature and precipitation (r² ≈ 30%, p < .001). Our review shows that individual global changes (e.g. warming, eutrophication, drought) have antagonist effects on root production, but they have rarely been studied in combination. Based on this newly established root production rate, root-derived carbon might account for most of the total carbon buried in mangroves, and 19 Tg C lost in mangroves each year (e.g. as CO₂). Inclusion of root production measurements in understudied geomorphological settings (i.e. deltas), regions (Indonesia, South America and Africa) and soil depth (>40 cm), as well as the creation of a mangrove root trait database will push forward our understanding of the global mangrove carbon cycle for now and the future. Overall, this review presents a comprehensive analysis of root production in mangroves, and highlights the central role of root production in the global mangrove carbon budget.     

Loss of functionally important and regionally endemic species from streams forced into intermittency by global warming

Climate change is altering hydrological cycles globally, and in Mediterranean (med-) climate regions it is causing the drying of river flow regimes, including the loss of perennial flows. Water regime exerts a strong influence over stream assemblages, which have developed over geological timeframes with the extant flow regime. Consequently, sudden drying in formerly perennial streams is expected to have large, negative impacts on stream fauna. We compared contemporary (2016/17) macroinvertebrate assemblages of formerly perennial streams that became intermittently flowing (since the early 2000s) to assemblages recorded in the same streams by a study conducted pre-drying (1981/82) in the med-climate region of southwestern Australia (the Wungong Brook catchment, SWA), using a multiple before-after, control-impact design. Assemblage composition in the stream reaches that remained perennial changed very little between the studies. In contrast, recent intermittency had a profound effect on species composition in streams impacted by drying, including the extirpation of nearly all Gondwanan relictual insect species. New species arriving at intermittent streams tended to be widespread, resilient species including desert-adapted taxa. Intermittent streams also had distinct species assemblages, due in part to differences in their hydroperiods, allowing the establishment of distinct winter and summer assemblages in streams with longer-lived pools. The remaining perennial stream is the only refuge for ancient Gondwanan relict species and the only place in the Wungong Brook catchment where many of these species still persist. The fauna of SWA upland streams is becoming homogenised with that of the wider Western Australian landscape, as drought-tolerant, widespread species replace local endemics. Flow regime drying caused large, in situ alterations to stream assemblage composition and demonstrates the threat posed to relictual stream faunas in regions where climates are drying.     

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.     

A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human-induced changes. Understanding how climate-mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8-year dataset (2013–2020), we show that inter-annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin-blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter-annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.